Lake Erie Percid Management Advisory Group Continues to Engage Stakeholders

QFC members Mike Jones, Aaron Berger, Matt Catalano, and Lisa Peterson attended two workshops organized by the Lake Erie Percid Management Advisory Group this past September and November. At the workshops, QFC members continued to facilitate the process and assist in the creation of models for management strategy evaluation (MSE).

In September, the group members were presented with the current Lake Erie walleye stock assessment process and a model developed by Aaron Berger, together illustrating how management objectives and strategies can be brought together to form a cohesive quantitative model. These two models were used not only to open up discussion on issues that were important to the different stakeholder groups, but also to gather thoughts on alternative model structures and assumptions.

At the November workshop, the group discussed acceptable fishery outcomes and alternative assessment models. Chris Vangergoot, also of the QFC, gave a presentation on tagging studies and discussed natural mortality and movement. This meeting introduced the stakeholders to the more technical aspects of the MSE procedure.

Future workshops will continue the model selection process. A technical review panel will also be used to provide outside feedback on the models being developed by the QFC. This will be followed by an analysis of the results, and finally, the selection of management recommendations. The next workshop is scheduled for February 2012.

Great Lakes Natural Resource Biologists Take Advantage of Training Opportunity in Fishery Stock Assessment at the QFC

Over the past year a cohort of natural resources biologists from management agencies in the Great Lakes region traveled to Michigan State University (MSU) to participate in a training program offered by the Quantitative Fisheries Center (QFC). Participants included personnel from four US states and the province of Ontario. The training program was led by QFC co-director Dr. James Bence and QFC Associate Director Dr. Travis Brenden and was supported by a grant from the Great Lakes Fishery Commission Science Transfer Program. The program sought to increase the number of biologists in the Great Lakes region familiar with modern stock assessment methods and to facilitate networking among these biologists and with personnel at the QFC to help confront stock assessment needs. Participants completed an online course on likelihood-based estimation techniques and traveled to MSU in December 2010 and January 2011 for short courses covering population dynamics and stock assessment methods. Participants also received training in the use of AD Model Builder, an extremely powerful and versatile software package for statistical modeling. Each participant identified and worked on a stock assessment project during the training program. Participants traveled to MSU in late spring 2011 to discuss progress and receive assistance on projects. Participants worked on a wide range of projects, such as development of a statistical catch at age (SCAA) model for lake whitefish around the Apostle Islands of Lake Superior, incorporation of recreational fishery length composition in the lake trout SCAA model for Minnesota waters of Lake Superior, and development of an SCAA model for walleye in Lake Michigan’s Big Bay de Noc. Participants indicated in survey responses that they had learned new information on stock assessment and population dynamics as a result of this training and that they would be able to apply this new information in the future. Several participants are continuing to collaborate with the QFC based on their assessment projects.

For more information about this item contact Jim Bence (bence@msu.edu) or Travis Brenden (brenden@msu.edu).

Stakeholder Engagement in Salmonine Stocking Decision Analysis

As part of an ongoing process to engage stakeholders in the development of salmonine stocking policies for Lake Michigan, QFC members Mike Jones and Iyob Tsehaye attended a one-day salmonine decision analysis workshop with angling organization representatives. The workshop was held in November 2011 at the Bass Pro Shop in Portage, Indiana. Organized by the Lake Michigan Committee, the workshop was one of a series of meetings intended to ensure that stakeholders have some sense of ownership of the decision making process by involving them in the development of management objectives, options, and uncertainties. At the workshop, the QFCers discussed the series of analytical steps they followed to assess the structure and magnitude of key uncertainties in prey/predator/fishery dynamics. They also presented results from a decision analysis model they developed to compare the performance of a range of fixed and state-dependent stocking rates. While the process for evaluating stocking options was well received by the participants, there were suggestions to (amongst other things) evaluate more “management relevant” stocking options and consider a longer response time for state dependent stocking policies. Presently, the decision analysis model is being updated to incorporate these suggestions. New results will be presented at a follow-up workshop in January 2012 to further engage stakeholders in the development of stocking policies for Lake Michigan.

A Defense-Heavy Autumn for QFC Graduate Students

On September 23, Kyle Molton successfully defended his Master’s thesis entitled “Keeping Up With the Times: Are More Conservative Harvest Policies Needed to Protect Intermixing Lake Whitefish Populations?” Kyle built simulation-based models to investigate the implications of intermixing on harvest policy performance for harvested lake whitefish populations. Two days prior to his defense, Kyle also presented the results of his research at the fall meeting of the Modeling Subcommittee for the 1836 Treaty Waters. Kyle will be staying on at the QFC until mid-December, working to publish the results of his research and assist with other QFC projects. In February, Kyle will be starting a new position as a Knauss Marine Policy Fellow in the Washington, D.C. area.

On October 11, Aaron Berger successfully defended his PhD dissertation entitled “Models to Aid in the Selection of Procedures Used to Manage Lake Erie Walleye (Sander vitreus)”. Aaron examined the performance of alternative walleye management procedures. These included standardizing survey data, incorporating spatial structure into stock assessments, and comparing different harvest policies. Aaron has taken a position with the Secretariat of the Pacific Community in Noumea, New Caledonia working as a bio-economic modeler for west and central Pacific tuna fisheries. He will be coupling biological models with economic models to provide scientific support for management decisions specific to Pacific island countries. We all look forward to hearing exciting tales of Aaron’s travel to exotic locales.

QFC personnel said goodbye to summer by attending professional conferences

In August, Brian Irwin presented on structured decision making and recreational fisheries management at the 6th World Recreational Fishing Conference, which was held in Berlin, Germany. Brian interacted with experts outside North America and discussed an ongoing QFC project (with the MI DNR) related to developing an adaptive management program for control of double-crested cormorants in Michigan.

Slightly closer to home, most of the QFC attended this year’s American Fisheries Society annual meeting in Seattle, WA. Prior to the meeting itself, Matt Catalano and Aaron Berger taught an R workshop as part of AFS’s continuing-education offerings. At AFS, Mike Jones and Jim Bence each co-moderated different sessions – “Using Models to Evaluate Predator/Prey Balance (or imbalance) In the Great Lakes Ecosystems” (Jones) and “Parameters That Aren’t: Time-Varying Effects in Stock Assessment” (Bence). QFC staff presented on a range of topics, including: management strategies for Yukon River fall chum salmon (Catalano); harvest policies for whitefish (Molton); management strategies for Lake Erie walleye (Berger); Lake Erie walleye biology and management (Vandergoot); bycatch mortality in Saginaw Bay (MacMillan); balancing food-web models (Langseth); model-based evaluation of salmonid stocking (Brenden); alewife abundance & salmonine consumption in Lake Michigan (Tsehaye); size-specific marking of lake trout by sea lamprey (Prichard); spatial distribution of migrating sea lamprey (Holbrook); adjusting survival estimates in telemetry studies (Holbrook); using random walks for time varying parameters (Bence); and variance partitioning with negative binomial mixed models (Irwin). Additional information about the 141st AFS meeting can be found here: http://afs2011.org/.

QFC reviewing Lake Michigan Red Flags Analysis

Rick Clark travelled to the Lake Michigan Technical Committee meeting in Marinette, Wisconsin to kick off a review of the Red Flags Analysis (RFA). RFA is a mechanism to enhance multijurisdictional collaboration of managers and stakeholder groups in management of the Chinook salmon fishery in Lake Michigan. Each management agency around the lake monitors the fishery in within its own waters and collects data for its own use, such as number stocked, harvested, and returning to spawn. In addition, federal agencies conduct annual surveys on forage fish abundance and university researchers periodically collect data during various research studies. RFA was developed as a way to assemble and organize these data on a lake wide basis and to make a quick, annual evaluation of the status of the Chinook salmon population and the predator-prey balance in the lake. Rick is examining RFA procedures and statistics, and will make recommendations for improvement, and to better document the analysis for future use.

Engaging Stakeholders to Develop Management Strategies for Lake Erie Percids

The Lake Erie Committee, charged with setting harvest policy for walleye and yellow perch fisheries in the lake, has invited members of the QFC (Mike Jones, Aaron Berger, and Lisa Peterson) to help guide the development of alternative harvest management strategies for these species. A key component of this process is to engage stakeholders through a series of workshops so that stakeholder beliefs and values are represented and stakeholders have some “ownership” of the process. The first workshop (November 2010) was used to cooperatively define a set of management objectives, options, and uncertainties. During the second workshop (July 2011), the group developed guidelines for moving forward and was introduced to an example of how a “management strategy evaluation” of this type works. Former QFC member Dr. Mike Wilberg shared his experience with a similar process for Atlantic king mackerel fisheries (you can see a report on this work in Fisheries vol. 35, pages 424-433 (FishSmart: harnessing the knowledge of stakeholders to enhance U.S. marine recreational fisheries with application to the Atlantic king mackerel fishery)). Future workshops will tackle model development and testing, reporting of results, and generating management recommendations.

The QFC is Growing!

We have had a number of new additions/transitions to the QFC. During the summer Rick Clark joined the QFC to work on special projects as a Visiting Scientist. Rick has focused his work on providing a review of the “Red Flags” metrics used on Lake Michigan. Rick came out of retirement to work with us after a distinguished career with the Michigan DNR Fisheries Division, which included a stint as their research program manager. Lisa Peterson and Li Yang joined the QFC this fall as MS students. The details of their thesis projects are still in development but both will be working in the general area of stock assessment and/or harvest policy analysis. They came different distances to join the QFC with Lisa being an MSU product, while Yang graduated from Shanghai Ocean University in China. Sarah Mayhew is employed as a biometrician for the Michigan DNR Wildlife Division and starting this fall will also be working toward her doctorate applying age-structured stock assessment methods, similar to those used widely in fisheries, to bear populations in Michigan. Eric MacMillan finished his MS degree in the Department of Fisheries and Wildlife at MSU and has taken a temporary position with the QFC through early next year helping us develop online course content before he leaves for DC to start his Knauss fellowship. Angie Leslie has temporarily departed the QFC until December (explaining our less efficient posting of news!) but this is a kind of addition too.   She is on family leave prompted by twin additions (Erik Benjamin and Alex Timothy) to the Leslie family on August 28.

QFC Online Course Receives Honorable Mention in Competition

The QFC is pleased to announce that one of our online courses, Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Natural Resources and Ecology, won honorable mention in MSU’s award competition in instructional technology. Visit our awards webpage to read more about the course and to watch a short 5 minute video that demonstrates the course and why we were awarded this highly regarded distinction.
Visit the MLE awards page

QFC Co-Director serves on expert panel for Yellowstone Park Lake Trout suppression program

Lake trout are the native apex predator in the Great Lakes, and have been the object of intensive restoration efforts since their Great Lakes populations were decimated in the middle of the 20th century by the invasive sea lamprey and overfishing. These efforts have led to success in Lake Superior, encouraging recent progress in Lake Huron, and continuing challenges in the other Great Lakes. Ironically, at the same time that we are working so hard in the Great Lakes to restore lake trout, they are the object of a suppression program aimed at averting ecological disaster in Yellowstone National Park.
Lake trout were illegally introduced into Yellowstone Lake, probably sometime in the 1980s. Their abundance has increased exponentially since that time and their predation of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout has led to precipitous declines in this endemic species since 1988. There is also evidence of broader ecosystem effects, for example on grizzly bears which feed on spawning cutthroat trout in the spring. Since 1998 the National Park Service has conducted a netting program aimed at reducing lake trout abundance in Yellowstone Lake, with the ultimate goal being protection and recovery of the cutthroat trout population.
In 2008 a scientific panel was invited to review the lake trout control program. QFC Co-Director Michael Jones was a member of this panel, which concluded that lake trout continue to pose a serious threat to the cutthroat trout, that the Park Service had inadequate knowledge of the population dynamics and movement patterns of lake trout to define an effective suppression program, and that greater control effort was almost certainly needed. In June of this year, several members of this panel, including Dr. Jones, were invited back to provide further review and recommendations. The panel was very encouraged to learn that the Park Service has much better information on lake trout population dynamics, and that they have contracted with professional fisherman to assist in increasing lake trout removals. Unfortunately lake trout abundance has continued to rise, but we now have credible estimates of the level of fishing effort needed to “overfish” the lake trout population, and the augmented suppression program appears to have the capacity to achieve this level. The National Park Service was again urged by the panel to strive to meet these fishing effort targets, and to gather better information on where lake trout are concentrated in the lake, especially during spawning. The next 5-10 years will be crucial to determining the fate of Yellowstone Lake cutthroat trout.
“It is no small irony that this species for which we have devoted so much effort to restoration in the Great Lakes – much of it unsuccessful, has become such a serious pest in another ecosystem”, observed Dr. Jones at the panel meeting.