Master’s student Carson Prichard attended the annual Michigan Chapter of the American Fisheries Society (AFS) held February 8-9, 2012 in Marinette, WI. This year’s meeting was a collaborative effort between both the Michigan and Wisconsin chapters of AFS, and was heavily attended by members of academia and agencies from both states. Carson gave an oral presentation titled “Accounting for Changing Patterns in Size-specific Wounding of Lake Trout by Sea Lamprey in the Upper Great Lakes.” He explained how current lake trout assessments may be improved with better estimates of annual sea lamprey mortality and demonstrated how his research can contribute by better accounting for differences in the size-selectivity of sea lamprey across managements units and over time.
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Review of Lake Michigan Red Flags Analysis (RFA)
Rick Clark has completed a critical review of the Lake Michigan Red Flags Analysis (RFA). He presented his results to the Lake Michigan Technical Committee (LMTC) in Chesterton, IN on January 24, 2012 and to the MIDNR Lake Michigan Basin Team at the Jordan River National Fish Hatchery on February 1, 2012. Rick concluded that the basic concept behind RFA was very good, but that the existing procedure had serious problems that should be fixed. He identified specific problems and recommended ways to fix them. As an illustration, he developed a prototype analysis which incorporates his recommendations. In the event that all or some of his recommendations are adopted, the prototype could serve as a framework for converting the old RFA into a better management tool. Rick is preparing a written report which will document the procedures of the existing RFA and present the results of the critical review. The report will be completed in time for the Lake Michigan Committee (LMC) to consider the recommendations at their March 2012 meeting in Windsor, ON.
2011 in Recap
By all measures, 2011 was another successful year for the QFC. We closed out the year with 19 people on staff, including 4 Post-Doctoral Research Associates/Visiting Scientists, 6 Ph.D. students, and 4 M.S. students. In addition, one Ph.D. student (Aaron Berger) and one M.S. student (Kyle Molton) completed their studies and moved on to new positions. In terms of educational opportunities, in 2011 QFC staff taught 2 workshops on the use of R, continued to host two non-credit online courses (Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Natural Resources and Ecology, R Essentials for Natural Resource Professional), continued work on the development of two other online courses, developed a series of video tutorials on how to use AD Model Builder, and completed a series of workshops that introduced statistical catch at age modeling to a cohort of fishery and wildlife professionals from throughout the Great Lakes region. In addition, QFC staff worked on 19 consultation/outreach projects for supporting partner agencies and were involved in 15 research projects. QFC staff contributed 12 manuscripts/completion reports/technical reports to our 2011 publication list, including 2 book chapters and 7 peer-reviewed scientific publications. QFC staff had at least 5 other manuscripts accepted for publication in scientific journals in 2011, but which had not yet gotten to the point in the publication process where publication numbers are assigned by the end of the year. Finally, QFC staff gave presentations at a variety of professional and technical committee meetings/conferences, including several international presentations. The QFC leadership is very proud of the excellent group of researchers and academic staff assembled at MSU and we thank them for all of their hard work in 2011.
Lake Erie Percid Management Advisory Group Continues to Engage Stakeholders
QFC members Mike Jones, Aaron Berger, Matt Catalano, and Lisa Peterson attended two workshops organized by the Lake Erie Percid Management Advisory Group this past September and November. At the workshops, QFC members continued to facilitate the process and assist in the creation of models for management strategy evaluation (MSE).
In September, the group members were presented with the current Lake Erie walleye stock assessment process and a model developed by Aaron Berger, together illustrating how management objectives and strategies can be brought together to form a cohesive quantitative model. These two models were used not only to open up discussion on issues that were important to the different stakeholder groups, but also to gather thoughts on alternative model structures and assumptions.
At the November workshop, the group discussed acceptable fishery outcomes and alternative assessment models. Chris Vangergoot, also of the QFC, gave a presentation on tagging studies and discussed natural mortality and movement. This meeting introduced the stakeholders to the more technical aspects of the MSE procedure.
Future workshops will continue the model selection process. A technical review panel will also be used to provide outside feedback on the models being developed by the QFC. This will be followed by an analysis of the results, and finally, the selection of management recommendations. The next workshop is scheduled for February 2012.
Great Lakes Natural Resource Biologists Take Advantage of Training Opportunity in Fishery Stock Assessment at the QFC
Over the past year a cohort of natural resources biologists from management agencies in the Great Lakes region traveled to Michigan State University (MSU) to participate in a training program offered by the Quantitative Fisheries Center (QFC). Participants included personnel from four US states and the province of Ontario. The training program was led by QFC co-director Dr. James Bence and QFC Associate Director Dr. Travis Brenden and was supported by a grant from the Great Lakes Fishery Commission Science Transfer Program. The program sought to increase the number of biologists in the Great Lakes region familiar with modern stock assessment methods and to facilitate networking among these biologists and with personnel at the QFC to help confront stock assessment needs. Participants completed an online course on likelihood-based estimation techniques and traveled to MSU in December 2010 and January 2011 for short courses covering population dynamics and stock assessment methods. Participants also received training in the use of AD Model Builder, an extremely powerful and versatile software package for statistical modeling. Each participant identified and worked on a stock assessment project during the training program. Participants traveled to MSU in late spring 2011 to discuss progress and receive assistance on projects. Participants worked on a wide range of projects, such as development of a statistical catch at age (SCAA) model for lake whitefish around the Apostle Islands of Lake Superior, incorporation of recreational fishery length composition in the lake trout SCAA model for Minnesota waters of Lake Superior, and development of an SCAA model for walleye in Lake Michigan’s Big Bay de Noc. Participants indicated in survey responses that they had learned new information on stock assessment and population dynamics as a result of this training and that they would be able to apply this new information in the future. Several participants are continuing to collaborate with the QFC based on their assessment projects.
For more information about this item contact Jim Bence (bence@msu.edu) or Travis Brenden (brenden@msu.edu).
Stakeholder Engagement in Salmonine Stocking Decision Analysis
As part of an ongoing process to engage stakeholders in the development of salmonine stocking policies for Lake Michigan, QFC members Mike Jones and Iyob Tsehaye attended a one-day salmonine decision analysis workshop with angling organization representatives. The workshop was held in November 2011 at the Bass Pro Shop in Portage, Indiana. Organized by the Lake Michigan Committee, the workshop was one of a series of meetings intended to ensure that stakeholders have some sense of ownership of the decision making process by involving them in the development of management objectives, options, and uncertainties. At the workshop, the QFCers discussed the series of analytical steps they followed to assess the structure and magnitude of key uncertainties in prey/predator/fishery dynamics. They also presented results from a decision analysis model they developed to compare the performance of a range of fixed and state-dependent stocking rates. While the process for evaluating stocking options was well received by the participants, there were suggestions to (amongst other things) evaluate more “management relevant” stocking options and consider a longer response time for state dependent stocking policies. Presently, the decision analysis model is being updated to incorporate these suggestions. New results will be presented at a follow-up workshop in January 2012 to further engage stakeholders in the development of stocking policies for Lake Michigan.
A Defense-Heavy Autumn for QFC Graduate Students
On September 23, Kyle Molton successfully defended his Master’s thesis entitled “Keeping Up With the Times: Are More Conservative Harvest Policies Needed to Protect Intermixing Lake Whitefish Populations?” Kyle built simulation-based models to investigate the implications of intermixing on harvest policy performance for harvested lake whitefish populations. Two days prior to his defense, Kyle also presented the results of his research at the fall meeting of the Modeling Subcommittee for the 1836 Treaty Waters. Kyle will be staying on at the QFC until mid-December, working to publish the results of his research and assist with other QFC projects. In February, Kyle will be starting a new position as a Knauss Marine Policy Fellow in the Washington, D.C. area.
On October 11, Aaron Berger successfully defended his PhD dissertation entitled “Models to Aid in the Selection of Procedures Used to Manage Lake Erie Walleye (Sander vitreus)”. Aaron examined the performance of alternative walleye management procedures. These included standardizing survey data, incorporating spatial structure into stock assessments, and comparing different harvest policies. Aaron has taken a position with the Secretariat of the Pacific Community in Noumea, New Caledonia working as a bio-economic modeler for west and central Pacific tuna fisheries. He will be coupling biological models with economic models to provide scientific support for management decisions specific to Pacific island countries. We all look forward to hearing exciting tales of Aaron’s travel to exotic locales.
QFC personnel said goodbye to summer by attending professional conferences
In August, Brian Irwin presented on structured decision making and recreational fisheries management at the 6th World Recreational Fishing Conference, which was held in Berlin, Germany. Brian interacted with experts outside North America and discussed an ongoing QFC project (with the MI DNR) related to developing an adaptive management program for control of double-crested cormorants in Michigan.
Slightly closer to home, most of the QFC attended this year’s American Fisheries Society annual meeting in Seattle, WA. Prior to the meeting itself, Matt Catalano and Aaron Berger taught an R workshop as part of AFS’s continuing-education offerings. At AFS, Mike Jones and Jim Bence each co-moderated different sessions – “Using Models to Evaluate Predator/Prey Balance (or imbalance) In the Great Lakes Ecosystems” (Jones) and “Parameters That Aren’t: Time-Varying Effects in Stock Assessment” (Bence). QFC staff presented on a range of topics, including: management strategies for Yukon River fall chum salmon (Catalano); harvest policies for whitefish (Molton); management strategies for Lake Erie walleye (Berger); Lake Erie walleye biology and management (Vandergoot); bycatch mortality in Saginaw Bay (MacMillan); balancing food-web models (Langseth); model-based evaluation of salmonid stocking (Brenden); alewife abundance & salmonine consumption in Lake Michigan (Tsehaye); size-specific marking of lake trout by sea lamprey (Prichard); spatial distribution of migrating sea lamprey (Holbrook); adjusting survival estimates in telemetry studies (Holbrook); using random walks for time varying parameters (Bence); and variance partitioning with negative binomial mixed models (Irwin). Additional information about the 141st AFS meeting can be found here: http://afs2011.org/.
QFC reviewing Lake Michigan Red Flags Analysis
Rick Clark travelled to the Lake Michigan Technical Committee meeting in Marinette, Wisconsin to kick off a review of the Red Flags Analysis (RFA). RFA is a mechanism to enhance multijurisdictional collaboration of managers and stakeholder groups in management of the Chinook salmon fishery in Lake Michigan. Each management agency around the lake monitors the fishery in within its own waters and collects data for its own use, such as number stocked, harvested, and returning to spawn. In addition, federal agencies conduct annual surveys on forage fish abundance and university researchers periodically collect data during various research studies. RFA was developed as a way to assemble and organize these data on a lake wide basis and to make a quick, annual evaluation of the status of the Chinook salmon population and the predator-prey balance in the lake. Rick is examining RFA procedures and statistics, and will make recommendations for improvement, and to better document the analysis for future use.
Engaging Stakeholders to Develop Management Strategies for Lake Erie Percids
The Lake Erie Committee, charged with setting harvest policy for walleye and yellow perch fisheries in the lake, has invited members of the QFC (Mike Jones, Aaron Berger, and Lisa Peterson) to help guide the development of alternative harvest management strategies for these species. A key component of this process is to engage stakeholders through a series of workshops so that stakeholder beliefs and values are represented and stakeholders have some “ownership” of the process. The first workshop (November 2010) was used to cooperatively define a set of management objectives, options, and uncertainties. During the second workshop (July 2011), the group developed guidelines for moving forward and was introduced to an example of how a “management strategy evaluation” of this type works. Former QFC member Dr. Mike Wilberg shared his experience with a similar process for Atlantic king mackerel fisheries (you can see a report on this work in Fisheries vol. 35, pages 424-433 (FishSmart: harnessing the knowledge of stakeholders to enhance U.S. marine recreational fisheries with application to the Atlantic king mackerel fishery)). Future workshops will tackle model development and testing, reporting of results, and generating management recommendations.
